NCRI Mostafa Aslani 18th January 2026
Why the uprising of January 2026 marks a decisive break between Iranian society and the ruling clerical regime
A profound transformation is unfolding in Iran. The country before and after 8 January 2026 is no longer the same. What erupted in the January 2026 uprising was not merely another wave of protests, but the most extensive and socially inclusive mobilization Iran has witnessed in more than four decades. For the first time since the establishment of the Mullahs regime, a massive reservoir of social energy has been released toward a final confrontation with clerical dictatorship.
The regime’s visible and pervasive fear is itself the clearest evidence that Iran is experiencing a nationwide revolutionary moment. The speed and depth of this social shift were so significant that even state-aligned media and many external observers failed to grasp how decisively public attitudes had changed. What emerged was not spontaneous unrest, but a collective determination centered on one goal: ending the rule of the ruling clerical establishment.
A Regime on Permanent Emergency
The regime’s declaration of nationwide emergency measures, the militarization of cities, and the imposition of de facto martial law are not signs of strength. They are the direct outcome of extraordinary fear. The regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to respond with mass killings has placed the entire power structure—top to bottom—face to face with a geography of public anger and a growing demand for accountability and revenge.
Iran today is witnessing a strategic confrontation that extends far beyond street demonstrations. In neighborhoods, workplaces, and households, competing strategies are being tested. On one side stands a regime fighting for survival; on the other, an opposition rooted in society that rejects all forms of dictatorship, whether religious or otherwise.
From Potential to Reality
Before January 2026, analysts spoke of Iran’s potential for uprising. That phase is over. A national revolt has now shattered the old relationship between state and society. Millions of Iranians have concluded, through lived experience, that returning to the past—through patience, reform, or accommodation—offers no path to change. Every previous route has led to political dead ends and repeated betrayals.
Out of this collective experience, a new phase has emerged: organization with maximum decisiveness. Increasingly, Iranians see structured resistance and sustained mobilization as the only viable means of confronting a regime they view as illegitimate and occupying.
Internet Blackouts and the Limits of Repression
In an attempt to halt this process, the authorities have imposed prolonged internet shutdowns, seeking to sever communication among citizens and isolate Iran from the outside world. Simultaneously, security forces and armed units have been deployed en masse across streets and transit routes to contain a society poised for decisive action.
Yet a critical question hangs over Tehran: how long can this be sustained? Maintaining permanent repression requires resources, loyalty, and morale—each of which is increasingly in short supply. The reality is that once a social uprising reaches this stage, the initiative shifts to the population. The regime can react, but it no longer controls the trajectory.
Historical Parallels and a Changing Equation
With due caution, Iran’s current situation can be compared to the period following the September 1978 massacre (Black Friday) under the Shah. That event marked a qualitative shift in relations between society and the state. Within weeks, the inevitability of the Shah’s fall became visible.
A similar transformation is now underway. Inside the regime, divisions, paralysis, and silence are spreading. The force of the national uprising has been so severe that many officials remain stunned, unable—or unwilling—to articulate clear positions. This internal instability is not temporary; it is structural and likely to intensify.
An Irreversible Moment
Iran has entered a new phase, governed by new rules. Not everything ahead is predictable, but one reality is beyond doubt: the relationship between Iranian society and clerical rule cannot return to its pre-January 2026 form. The conflict has become existential—about survival versus collapse.
This shift does not stop at Iran’s borders. Global reactions, diplomatic calculations, and regional dynamics are increasingly shaped by this internal confrontation. The question is no longer whether Iran will change, but how—and how the world will respond to a nation that has clearly crossed the point of no return.